The recent amnesty programme in the Niger Delta is a promising step towards increased security and prosperity in the region. Many former militants, tired of living a fugitive lifestyle and eager to use their skills in legitimate business ventures, have now pledged to disarm. These recent events could herald a new era of prosperity and peace in the region. However, there are still a number of challenges to be overcome. Many militants do not believe that the federal government will stay true to its word and splinter factions have emerged. This has created a schism between former militants who have renounced violence and those who aim to continue their struggle. In an interesting turn of events, some former militants have now begun to work in the security industry, actively working against their former comrades-in-arms. This presents an interesting opportunity for companies wishing to have an unrivalled understanding of the situation on the ground, but also poses challenges with regard to the integration of former militants into a business environment.

Sources involved in mediation between the militants and the government have expressed cautious optimism surrounding recent developments, but local security consultants have warned that splinter factions still present a considerable danger to foreign companies operating in the region. Marine piracy remains a key concern and several militant groups are now reported to be operating off the coast in the Gulf of Guinea, having been forced out of Nigeria by their former comrades and the security forces. Over the coming months, further divisions within militant groups are expected to emerge and the possibility of infighting remains.

Local sources with direct links to militant groups have reported that many of the young men who previously engaged in violent and destructive acts against businesses and government forces in the Niger Delta have become increasingly disillusioned with their situation. Many are not able to see their families and live in unsanitary conditions in constant fear of attack. Sustained efforts have been made by a range of organisations, such as the Association for Non-Violence in the Niger Delta, to educate these young men about the alternatives available to them. The focus is on empowering former militants to make an informed decision to abandon violence and to play a role in ensuring peace, stability and a positive business environment for the region.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is by far the most well-known militant group operating in the region. MEND has accused the Federal Government and international companies of oppressing the people of Nigeria and causing widespread ecological devastation. The militant group's guerilla warfare campaign has included kidnapping, attacks on petroleum facilities and sabotage. Following his acceptance of the government's amnesty offer, the group's former Field Commander Farah Dagogo was banished from the organisation and all of the group's other commanders who accepted the offer were similarly removed and replaced with unknown individuals. MEND then vowed to continue its campaign with renewed fervour. This is evidence for the fact that while many militants are now turning their back on guerilla tactics, there still remains a sizeable and well-organised group of individuals who refuse to disarm.

The coming weeks and months are sure to bring new challenges and developments and Pasco will continue to monitor the situation.