A series of alleged incursions into Indian sovereign territory by the Chinese military over the past few months has once again reinforced the mutual mistrust that has defined relations between these two Asian giants. Since June 2009, reports of violations of Indian air space and land by the Chinese military have led to intense debate in India. India and China share roughly 4,000-km of border, the source of a long-standing dispute which led to an armed conflict between the two sides in 1962.

Indian Army authorities have publicly admitted to the violation of Indian air space by the Chinese in the Leh sector, and land incursions in the Indian states of Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh. But at a diplomatic level, India has preferred to downplay the incidents. For their part, the Chinese have responded by saying that the border patrols are conducted in strict accordance with the rules.

While there is concern in the Indian military establishment that the incursions are part of a wellplanned strategy by the Chinese to legitimize their claim to a larger area on the Indian side of the border when the territorial dispute is finally resolved, Indian government officials are more guarded in their response. They maintain that since the border, called the Line of Actual Control, is disputed, it becomes difficult to term any violations as valid incursions. It is significant that the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, has so far not commented on the controversy.

The two countries have held over a dozen rounds of negotiations since 2003 but resolution of the border dispute is still nowhere in sight. The Chinese claim to a large part of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh has proved to be a big hurdle in moving the negotiations forward. In April this year, China attempted to block the Asian Development Bank’s funding of a flood control project in Arunachal Pradesh stating that the bank would not be able to finance any project in a disputed territory. In response to the provocation from China, India has granted permission for the Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of the Tibetans living in exile in India, to visit a Buddhist monastery in Arunachal Pradesh in November.

China and India realise that a full-scale war would be disastrous for both economies, especially at a time when the two nations are seeking to expand their spheres of geopolitical influence. While a full scale military confrontation is unlikely, sparring between the two sides will continue till the border dispute and other outstanding issues are resolved.

About Nagaraj Bharwaraj & Pasco.
Nagaraj Bharwaraj is a political analyst and a director of Pasco's Asia Pacific region.